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Implied probability

1,332 bytes added, 17:38, 15 January 2020
== Converting odds formats ==
Implied probability can always be calculated by dividing the initial risk by the total return. Formulas Betting odds directly or indirectly indicate potential payout relative to stake and can therefore be used to directly convert odds into percentagesderive formulas for calculating implied probability. Below are the formulas used to calculate implied probability using convert popular [[odds format]]sinto percentages.
=== American ===
=== Fractional ===
Potential profit is Total return can be directly calculated by multiplying initial risk by the [[fractional odds]]. This makes it an easy format to convert to into implied probability. Flip the numerator and denominator of Percentage is calculated by dividing 1 by the fractional odds to reveal (taking the reciprocal of the implied probabilityfraction). {| class="wikitable" style="text-align: center; margin: auto;"|- style="background-color:#eaecf0;"|colspan="2"|'''Team'''|'''Spread'''|'''Total'''|'''Moneyline'''|-|[[File:Lakers.png|25px]]|Los Angeles Lakers| -11.5 (10/11)| Over 217.5 (10/11)| 1/9|-|[[File:Grizzlies.png|20px]]|Memphis Grizzlies| +11.5 (10/11)| Under 217.5 (10/11)| 6/1|}
=== Decimal ===
Total return relative to initial risk is indicated through [[Decimal decimal odds]]. Because implied probability is calculated by dividing the stake by the total return this makes it an easy odds format to convert into percentage. Divide 1 by the decimal odds to convert it to implied probability. {| class="wikitable" style="text-align: center; margin: auto;"|- style="background-color:#eaecf0;"|colspan="2"|'''Team'''|'''[[Puck line]]'''|'''[[Total]]'''|'''[[Moneyline]]'''|-|[[File:Canadiens.png|25px]]|Montreal Canadiens| -1.5 (2.70)| Over 6.5 (1.91)| 1.66|-|[[File:MapleLeafs.png|20px]]|Toronto Maple Leafs| +1.5 (1.50)| Under 6.5 (1.91)| 2.30|} Consider the moneyline market in the example above. Montreal is favored and has 1.66 odds to win the match. As the underdog Toronto has 2.30 odds. Dividing 1 by these decimal odds will convert them to implied probability: