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Implied probability

2,383 bytes added, 20:32, 15 January 2020
=== American ===
[[American odds]]represent betting prices through positive and negative numbers relative to a 100 unit base figure. Negative American odds require a risk of that amount in order to profit $100. Positive American odds yield a profit of that amount for an initial stake of $100. Converting positive and negative American odds to implied probability require separate formulas. {| class="wikitable" style="text-align: center; margin: auto;"|- style="background-color:#eaecf0;"|colspan="2"|'''Team'''|'''Spread'''|'''Total'''|'''Moneyline'''|-|[[File:Patriots.png|25px]]|New England Patriots| -3.5 (-110)| Over 44.5 (-110)| -180|-|[[File:Ravens.png|25px]]|Baltimore Ravens| +3.5 (-110)| Under 44.5 (-110)| +160|} In the NFL match above the New England Patriots are favored with -180 odds to win outright. Implied probability is calculated by dividing initial risk by total return. Since a bet on a market with -180 odds requires a risk of $180 in order to profit $100, it is converted into a percentage by diving the odds (180) by the odds augmented by 100 (180 + 100 = 280). The Baltimore Ravens are the underdog with +160 odds to win outright. An initial stake of $100 would yield $160 profit and a return of $260. Converting positive American odds into implied probability is done by dividing the odds (160) by the odds augmented by 100 (160 + 100 = 260). {| class="wikitable" style="text-align: center; margin: auto;"|- style="background-color:#eaecf0;"|colspan="2"|'''Bet'''|'''Odds'''|'''Calculation'''|'''Implied probability'''|-|[[File:Patriots.png|25px]]|Patriots ML| -180| 180 / (180 + 100) = 0.6429| 64.29%|-|[[File:Ravens.png|25px]]|Ravens ML| +160| 100 / (160 + 100) = 0.3846| 38.46%|}
=== Fractional ===
Total [[Fractional odds]] represent profit relative to initial risk is represented through [[fractional odds]]. Odds are represented by a fraction; an initial risk of . Betting the amount in the fraction's denominator will yield profit the amount in the numerator. Since implied probability is calculated by dividing stake initial risk by total return fractional odds can be converted into percentages by dividing the numerator denominator by the sum of the numerator and denominator.:
{| class="wikitable" style="text-align: center; margin: auto;"
| Under 217.5 (10/11)
| 6/1
|}
 
Consider the moneyline market in the NBA game above. The Los Angeles Lakers are favored and have 1/9 fractional odds of winning the match outright. The Memphis Grizzlies are the underdog and are priced at 6/1. Implied probability is calculated by dividing the denominator by the sum of the numerator and denominator.
 
{| class="wikitable" style="text-align: center; margin: auto;"
|- style="background-color:#eaecf0;"
|colspan="2"|'''Bet'''
|'''Odds'''
|'''Calculation'''
|'''Implied probability'''
|-
|[[File:Lakers.png|25px]]
|Lakers ML
| 1/9
| 9 / (1 + 9) = 9/10 = 0.90
| 90.00%
|-
|[[File:Grizzlies.png|20px]]
|Grizzlies ML
| 6/1
| 1 / (6 + 1) = 1/7 = 0.1428
| 14.28%
|}

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